This page tracks every stock Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium has discussed on YouTube, extracted from AI transcription of their 10 most recent videos covering 21 tickers. They are currently bullish on GOOGL, ZETA, SOFI, HOOD, DUOL, HIMS and others. Bearish on CRWV, NBIS, IREN, ORCL, MU, AMZN. Each take below includes their stated reasoning and, where given, a price target.
No broad macro view; focus is AI IPO dynamics. Anthropic's S-1 shows decelerating Q/Q growth, $434.5B compute commitments, blank obligation pages, and a complex lockup. He flags the IPO as possibly opportunistic and expects typical post-IPO weakness over the first six months.
| Ticker | Action | Why | Target | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
ZETA●●● | add | Athena OS and related Zeta Live launches expand TAM beyond ad demand into supply-side operations; ~37.6% revenue CAGR with improving margins, 20%+ growth guided through 2028, EV/sales just 5. | — | 2w ago |
DUOL●●● | add | Contrarian turnaround: growth decelerated to ~18% but DAUs keep rising and should lag into paid-subscriber monetization; new content (math, chess) and AI interactivity; ~18x multiple is compelling. He dollar-cost averaged through the drawdown. | — | 2w ago |
LYFT●●● | add | Trades at 8x forward earnings and ~5x forward FCF despite 17-23% revenue CAGR, $1.1B FCF, and net cash; AV disruption fears are overdone given the Waymo Nashville partnership, Free Now in Europe, and potential appeal as an acquisition target. | — | 2w ago |
UBER●●● | add | Down 31% but gross bookings still compounding ~20% with 208M monthly users; UK revenue reclassification headwind flips to a tailwind in 2027, and AV players below Tesla/Waymo need Uber as the biggest demand aggregator. | — | 2w ago |
MGM●●● | add | Below 8x EV/EBITDA and ~5x P/FCF while buying back ~15% of shares; MGM Japan (2030 Osaka opening, only legal casino in Japan for a decade) could generate $2-3B EBITDA, with MGM's stake potentially worth the whole current market cap. | — | 2w ago |
Z●●● | buy | Aggregator that owns home-shopper demand; revenue growth accelerating (17.7%) on rentals (34% CAGR) and mortgages, margins turning positive, cheap at ~11x forward P/E with buybacks and net cash. | — | 3w ago |
UBER●●● | buy | Uber aggregates physical supply (drivers) that individual drivers cannot replicate on their own, making it the default network AI agents will connect to for rides and food delivery. With 200M+ monthly users, ~3.9B quarterly trips, gross bookings compounding at ~20%, and a forward P/E of ~17 and P/FCF of ~11.5, the stock is attractively valued after a 30% decline. | — | 3w ago |
LYFT●●● | buy | Lyft has a similar ride-share network to Uber and can differentiate by undercutting on price for cost-conscious agents. At a forward P/E of ~7.7 and P/FCF of ~5, the market is pricing in an unsustainable business, but gross bookings accelerated in Q2 and the company is growing internationally. | — | 3w ago |
TOST●●● | buy | Toast is the operating system for restaurants—handling orders, payments, and operations—making it the most direct contact point for AI agents seeking to connect with restaurants. Growing at a 3-year CAGR of ~27% with a forward P/E of ~20, it has expansion potential beyond restaurants into adjacent verticals. | — | 3w ago |
ZG●●● | buy | Zillow is becoming the operating system for housing, with its rentals business growing at a 34% CAGR and technology like 3D home tours and digital floor plans creating a moat. AI agents searching for housing supply will default to Zillow's network, and at an EV/sales of ~2 and P/E of ~11, the market is overly pessimistic after a 64% decline. | — | 3w ago |
Hyperscaler with a cash-generating core business that can fund or even trim capex; he owns shares and believes it will be 'just fine' even if the broader AI trade cracks.
Athena OS and related Zeta Live launches expand TAM beyond ad demand into supply-side operations; ~37.6% revenue CAGR with improving margins, 20%+ growth guided through 2028, EV/sales just 5.
Digital-first bank compounding members ~35% since 2023 with 41% revenue growth and rising fee-based financial services; P/B ~1.8 vs peers above 2 after multiple compression makes valuation compelling.
Maturing platform: net-interest-led revenue, rapidly growing retirement/custodial accounts, international expansion; 30%+ growth for a decade should grow into the rich ~50x P/E. Trimmed a bit in late 2025 on valuation.
Contrarian turnaround: growth decelerated to ~18% but DAUs keep rising and should lag into paid-subscriber monetization; new content (math, chess) and AI interactivity; ~18x multiple is compelling. He dollar-cost averaged through the drawdown.
H2 2026 guidance of 50% revenue growth after the Novo Nordisk settlement; now offering Novo/Lilly products, adding labs, peptides and European acquisitions; $2.6B revenue vs a potentially trillion-dollar TAM in 10-20 years.
Trades at 8x forward earnings and ~5x forward FCF despite 17-23% revenue CAGR, $1.1B FCF, and net cash; AV disruption fears are overdone given the Waymo Nashville partnership, Free Now in Europe, and potential appeal as an acquisition target.
Down 31% but gross bookings still compounding ~20% with 208M monthly users; UK revenue reclassification headwind flips to a tailwind in 2027, and AV players below Tesla/Waymo need Uber as the biggest demand aggregator.
Below 8x EV/EBITDA and ~5x P/FCF while buying back ~15% of shares; MGM Japan (2030 Osaka opening, only legal casino in Japan for a decade) could generate $2-3B EBITDA, with MGM's stake potentially worth the whole current market cap.
Aggregator that owns home-shopper demand; revenue growth accelerating (17.7%) on rentals (34% CAGR) and mortgages, margins turning positive, cheap at ~11x forward P/E with buybacks and net cash.
DoorDash will play a key role in an agentic food-delivery ecosystem and has successfully white-labeled its delivery infrastructure to other brands. However, at a forward P/E of ~29 and P/FCF of ~21, it trades at a premium to the others in the basket, which is why Hoium does not yet own shares.
Toast is the operating system for restaurants—handling orders, payments, and operations—making it the most direct contact point for AI agents seeking to connect with restaurants. Growing at a 3-year CAGR of ~27% with a forward P/E of ~20, it has expansion potential beyond restaurants into adjacent verticals.
Zillow is becoming the operating system for housing, with its rentals business growing at a 34% CAGR and technology like 3D home tours and digital floor plans creating a moat. AI agents searching for housing supply will default to Zillow's network, and at an EV/sales of ~2 and P/E of ~11, the market is overly pessimistic after a 64% decline.
Debt yields on its 9% Feb 2031 notes jumped from ~8% to over 15%, making future capital raises prohibitively expensive; capex can't be funded by cash flow, creating a downward spiral.
Same neocloud doom loop: rising borrowing costs and a falling stock price make funding its capital-intensive growth unsustainable; down ~19% in five days though still up YTD.
Neocloud facing the same financing squeeze as capital costs rise just as AI revenue growth slows, threatening buildout economics; down ~22% in five days.
Grouped with the neoclouds: capex-heavy and unable to self-fund its AI buildout, forcing increasingly expensive capital raises; already had a terrible run over the past year.
Micron's 86% gross margin is a commodity-cycle peak driven by HBM demand, not volume growth. Historically margins have ranged from near 60% peaks to negative. Demand is set to soften as customers design next-gen chips with less HBM, and new capacity coming online in 2028-2029 will increase supply. If margins revert from 83% to 40%, profits fall ~90%, making the cheap 7x forward P/E a value trap.
Amazon's retail growth has slowed to 13%, and profitability is overly dependent on advertising revenue that exceeds operating income. In an agentic future where AI agents shop without seeing ads, both revenue growth and margins could compress. With negative $11.6B free cash flow, $129B in debt, and a 26x forward P/E for a 12% CAGR business, the stock looks expensive.
Tesla's auto business is commoditizing—revenue has been flat for three years, operating margins have plummeted to 4.2%, and growth is single digits or negative. Meanwhile, capex for AI infrastructure and Optimus robots ($26B this year) will exceed operating cash flow. At 13x sales and 192x forward P/E, the valuation is disconnected from fundamentals, and Musk's focus has shifted to SpaceX.
His turnaround thesis failed: revenue and paying users declining, competition rising. The $6.05 buyout (138% premium) is a profitable exit, but he'll sell now to avoid deal-break risk back to ~$3.
Price target: $6.05
Travis Hoium reacts to Anthropic's S-1, flagging decelerating quarter-over-quarter revenue growth (~45-50% in Q3 2026 vs ~100% in Q2), $434.5B in compute/service commitments, and blank contractual-obligation disclosures. With $138B in cash and positive operating cash flow, he questions why Anthropic is IPOing now, calling it a possible opportunistic liquidity event at a $1.5-2T valuation. He typically avoids IPOs and has no interest in buying at the offering, preferring to watch the first six months of trading.
Travis Hoium argues the AI trade is starting to unravel: credit markets are flashing stress (CoreWeave debt yields at distress levels, Nebius converts below par, rising hyperscaler CDS) while ROI doubts grow after Anthropic's slowdown and enterprise AI-spend scrutiny. With ~50% of the S&P 500 tied to AI, he expects pressure on chips, software, and neoclouds through 2026 into 2027. He avoids the core AI trade — Alphabet is his only AI-related holding — and favors cash-generative companies buying back stock, which lifted his portfolio ~1% on the down day.
Travis Hoium argues the AI selloff is a financing-driven reckoning: spiking borrowing costs (CoreWeave's 2031 debt yield from ~8% to 15%+) make the neoclouds' and Oracle's capital-intensive buildouts unprofitable, while Anthropic's stalling revenue growth and corporate AI spend caps undermine the demand assumptions behind the whole trade. He expects the 'doom loop' to worsen over the coming months and avoids these names, instead owning Alphabet and companies using AI with real cash flows and physical-world moats.
Travis Hoium breaks down Bumble's surprise $6.05/share cash buyout by Ithaca at a 138% premium, which sent shares up ~135% in two days and turned his position into a ~30-40% gain. He frames it as validation of buying cheap, positive-FCF companies for takeover optionality, while admitting his turnaround thesis failed amid falling revenue, shrinking paying users, and rising competition. He plans to sell before deal close to avoid execution risk, not expecting a higher bid.
Travis Hoium is highly bullish on Zeta Global after its Zeta Live event, arguing that Athena OS, an MCP for chatbots, specialized NVIDIA/Fireworks inference models, and future custom silicon could expand the business far beyond marketing demand into supply-side operations, potentially 10x-ing the stock over a decade. ZETA is the #2 holding in his Asymmetric Investing portfolio, compounding ~37.6% revenue growth with improving margins. No macro commentary was offered.
Travis Hoium profiles his five biggest growth holdings—SoFi, Robinhood, Zeta Global, Duolingo, and Hims & Hers—arguing each can compound revenue 20-50%+ for a decade despite 2026's multiple compression. He sees the drawdowns as compelling entry valuations, having trimmed a little Robinhood on stretched valuation while dollar-cost averaging into Duolingo during its decline.
Travis Hoium highlights three stocks he owns and has been buying more of in 2026 — Lyft, Uber, and MGM Resorts — arguing each trades at extremely low multiples (forward P/E ~8, P/FCF ~5, EV/EBITDA under 8) despite double-digit growth. He believes autonomous vehicles will be a tailwind rather than a disruption for Lyft and Uber as demand aggregators, while MGM's 2030 Japan casino could ultimately be worth its entire market cap.
Travis Hoium's October Asymmetric Portfolio buy is Zillow, down 61% over the past year and one of the market's most unloved stocks. He argues it's a phenomenal value and long-term compounder, with accelerating revenue growth (17.7%) driven by rentals and mortgages, expanding margins, low multiples, and ~$800M of recent buybacks, targeting 10X returns over 10 years.
Travis Hoium argues that in an AI-agent future, companies aggregating physical supply will develop strong network effects that protect them from disruption. He identifies five beaten-down stocks—Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, Toast, and Zillow—as undervalued plays on this thesis, noting that AI agents will need to connect to the largest physical supply networks to fulfill rides, food delivery, and housing searches.
Travis Hoium identifies five popular stocks—Oracle, CoreWeave, Micron, Amazon, and Tesla—that he believes are overvalued and carry rising risks. His central thesis is that rising debt costs, negative free cash flow from massive AI capex buildouts, and deteriorating business fundamentals make these stocks vulnerable. He recommends investors use this time to sell or take profits before the market reprices these risks.
Based on AI analysis of this creator's recent videos. Theses are paraphrases of the creator's own words, not verbatim quotes. Not financial advice.