Felix & Friends (Goat Academy)

As a US multinational with significant international revenue, a weaker dollar from carry trade unwind makes its foreign earnings worth more when converted back to dollars, boosting profitability without the business needing to improve.

Same logic as other US multinationals—a weaker dollar tailwind increases the value of its international revenue when converted back to dollars.

Felix recently bought PM after it broke out of a heartbeat pattern above recent highs and above the 150-day moving average. He also frames it as part of his strategy to reduce AI concentration in his portfolio.

Felix bought NSC on a heartbeat breakout with institutional volume confirmation and is up about 8%. He highlights that railroads are overlooked by mainstream media but are cheap, efficient logistics plays.

Felix bought EXFY on a heartbeat pattern with the 150-day moving average turning up and significant institutional money flowing in. The stock rose approximately 30% in two to three weeks after his entry.

Felix bought TENB on a second heartbeat breakout with large volume, rode it from roughly $25 to $37, and sold near $37.20 using his exit rules, capturing roughly 48% in about two weeks before the stock collapsed.

Felix has CHD on his watchlist due to a textbook heartbeat pattern with the 50-day moving average trending up. He has set a conditional buy order at approximately $100, waiting for a confirmed breakout above recent highs before entering.

Felix has ENB on his watchlist as a gas company showing a heartbeat pattern that looks ready to break out, with the 150-day moving average rising. He has set a conditional buy order above the heartbeat breakout level, pending volume confirmation.

Felix owns OEF as a broad market index fund for long-term holding with no stop-loss, buying on pullbacks. He holds it for portfolio stability and peace of mind rather than active trading.

Felix owns SPY as a broad S&P 500 index fund with a long-term horizon of 10+ years and no stop-loss. He buys on pullbacks and holds it as a foundational portfolio element.

Felix uses DVN as a historical case study showing the heartbeat pattern and volume spike that occurred roughly a year before the Ukraine war. The stock tripled from ~$12 to ~$60 before the headline event, demonstrating that institutional money moves before news.

Felix uses NVDA as a historical example of the heartbeat pattern in 2022, where volume doubled before the AI frenzy and ChatGPT launch became public. The stock had already doubled before headlines caught up, illustrating that smart money moves first.

Intel reported jaw-dropping earnings with revenue growth of 25%, EPS doubling expectations, data center/AI division growing 59%, and foundry business growing 31%. Google placed an order for 3 million chips and the company raised guidance above Wall Street expectations. Felix notes the stock is still below its 50-day moving average, which is a risk flag, but views it as a genuine comeback story.

Same as QQQ but with lower fees, making it the better choice for buy-and-hold investors rather than active traders who need QQQ's liquidity.

A core 'builder' wave stock that physically manufactures cheap attack drones. It previously turned $10k into $16k at peak but then crashed back to $5k, illustrating the need for disciplined exits. Felix sees the builder wave as the first to receive money but emphasizes timing is critical.

A 'builder' wave stock that is currently beaten up, which Felix sees as potentially creating an entry opportunity. It manufactures small drones and is in the first wave of money flow in the UAV space.

A 'builder' wave drone stock that previously turned $10k into $22k (a 370% gain) at its peak. Felix uses it as an example of being right on the thesis but needing an exit strategy to avoid giving back gains.

Felix bought Weatherford in October 2025 before the conflict broke out, rode it up nicely, and took profits. He uses it as an example of following institutional money flows rather than predicting headlines.

Mentioned in passing as a stock Felix owns, appearing in his portfolio news roundup. No detailed thesis provided.

Owns the payment rails like a toll booth, earning a sliver on a huge percentage of global transactions. Gross margins of 75% and a perfect moat score of 100 make it nearly impossible to displace.

Has transitioned from a meme stock to a legitimate profitable business with an insanely high free cash flow margin and a 100% cash score. Real money is coming in the door.

A fortress in cybersecurity that can cover its interest payments 140 times over in a single year. Even if revenue dropped by half, it could still pay interest 70 times over, making it basically unkillable.

A genuine high-growth AI-powered advertising business with ~90% gross margins, massive cash flow generation, and a sane valuation at 27x PE. It is one of the 11 elite stocks that score 80+.

A boring mall jeans retailer nobody talks about that scores 78, with zero debt, free cash flow, and a PE under 10. Quietly extraordinary and sanely priced.

Warren Buffett's $44B acquisition of BNSF in 2009 is cited as the single best clue in the railroad thesis—Buffett called it an all-in bet on the economic future of the United States. Felix uses this as validation for the railroad toll-booth model.

Its e-infrastructure solutions segment builds foundations, electrical systems, and site work for data centers, with revenue up 92% YoY and a $5B contracted backlog providing near-guaranteed forward revenue. The company spends almost nothing on R&D yet operates in the biggest construction boom in decades.

Through its Gemma Power Systems subsidiary, Argan builds natural gas power plants specifically for data centers, including a massive 1.4 gigawatt plant in Texas. It has a ~40%+ free cash flow margin, no debt, and roughly $3B in backlog, making it exceptionally well-run for a capital-intensive construction business.

Credo makes high-speed connectivity chips enabling AI processors to communicate, with revenue tripling from $400M to $1.3B in one year and 68% gross margins indicating strong pricing power. The creator calls it possibly the single strongest company in the entire video, though its $48B market cap makes 10x harder.

Vicor makes specialized power modules delivering precise electricity to GPU racks, solving a critical AI bottleneck. Revenue hit all-time highs with a $300M backlog, profit growth up 700% YoY, and 55% margins on hardware—exceptional for a physical product company. At a $12B market cap, a couple big contracts could double the stock.

Okta has positioned itself as the identity layer for AI, launching Okta for AI agents to control which agents access which systems and data. With nearly 80% margins, growing revenue and profits, and strong free cash flow generation, it is the bouncer for AI as agent adoption explodes.

Cellebrite makes digital forensics tools used by law enforcement and intelligence agencies, and is building AI-powered tools to analyze AI-generated data. At a $4B market cap with 84% gross margins (best on the list), 32% free cash flow margin, and ~20% revenue growth guidance, the creator calls it his favorite sleeper with the best 10x math potential.

Up over 100% in the same six-month period, listed alongside Micron and ARM as stocks that outperformed while household names crashed.

Up over 100% in six months and noted as a stock that ran up very nicely. In Q&A, Felix notes it is at a slightly concerning point currently but if bought at the last proper entry point, you'd be locking in an 82% gain.

Up over 100% in the same period, listed as an example of a winner that contrasted with the major losers.

Felix states he bought Ralph Lauren based on a 'heartbeat pattern' breakout on the chart. He notes it briefly broke through the 50-day moving average during the day but bounced back, which is why stops should be set slightly below the line.

Felix states he bought this dental instruments company, though he admits buying a little late. It went up approximately 15-19% and he discusses where to set the stop based on the stock's daily volatility, suggesting option two on the chart as reasonable.

Step 1 of the risk-reward staircase: holds super short government bonds (3 months or less), pays about 3.8% per year with monthly distributions, and the value barely moves. Exempt from state taxes, making it ideal for cash parking and emergency funds.

Step 1 alternative: floating-rate government bonds where payments rise automatically if the Fed raises rates, so you're not locked in. Currently pays about 3.8%.

Step 2: lends to US-protected countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar whose currencies are pegged to the dollar. Pays about 5.8% with all loans in USD, diversified across multiple countries to reduce single-country risk.

Step 3: holds loans to big, strong companies due in 1-5 years, pays about 4.4% with very low fees (0.03%) and minimal price movement due to short duration.

Step 3 alternative: holds longer-term corporate bonds paying 4.5-5.2%, offering more income but with more price volatility—could drop 7-8% if rates rise 1%. Recommended as part of a barbell approach split with VCSH.

Step 4: the biggest junk bond fund, pays about 6.5%—double government bonds—but carries significant risk. Could lose 15-25% in a downturn as weak companies default. A bet on the economy staying strong, not a park-and-forget investment.

Step 5: holds about 10,000 city and state bonds, pays about 3.5% and is exempt from federal income tax. For high-income earners, the tax benefit makes it beat nearly every corporate bond fund on an after-tax basis.

Step 5 alternative: similar tax-free municipal bond fund paying about 3% per year, also exempt from federal tax.

Bitcoin crashed due to leverage unwinding and the weak-dollar thesis being challenged by Walsh's hawkish stance, but the creator expects a recovery similar to 2022. He notes Walsh is the most crypto-literate Fed chair ever, has called Bitcoin 'digital gold for younger generations,' and is only skeptical of altcoins, not Bitcoin itself.

Gold crashed due to the debasement trade unwinding, higher opportunity cost from rates, and fading fear, but the creator sees this as a correction within a longer bull run. Major investment banks still have year-end gold price targets 25-50% higher than current levels, and the 2022 precedent suggests a recovery pattern.

Silver's structural demand from solar panels, semiconductors, and electronics is growing every year and won't go away regardless of Fed policy. The creator sees the crash as a parabolic correction and expects recovery, noting silver is already 10% off its lowest price this year.

Named as part of the 140-company Open USD stablecoin consortium. The creator is bullish on financial infrastructure and crypto companies that sit between users and the Treasury market, earning risk-free interest on stablecoin reserves.

Named as a leading member of the Open USD stablecoin consortium. Payment processors and money-movers are positioned to benefit from the stablecoin ecosystem the creator describes as the largest corporate alliance in financial services history.

Corning is the AI 'picks and shovels' play—every AI data center needs its optical fiber cables to connect chips, regardless of which chipmaker wins. It has the strongest money-flow reading of any stock Felix follows, with all three green lights flashing: outperforming peers, in an uptrend near all-time highs, and seeing significant volume.

Affirm is a buy-now-pay-later fintech built directly into Apple Pay, Amazon, and Shopify checkouts, giving it access to hundreds of millions of shoppers without customer acquisition costs. After years of losses it is crossing into profitability, which often attracts larger institutional money. The chart shows a sideways consolidation breakout with an upward relative performance trend.

RSI is a rare profitable online casino and sports betting operator riding the wave of U.S. state-by-state legalization. It just closed at a brand-new all-time high, meaning there are no frustrated sellers above, and it has the second-strongest money-flow reading on Felix's list with all three green lights confirmed.

Felix uses Peloton as a cautionary tale of what happens without exit rules: the stock ran from ~$25 to ~$175 during COVID then collapsed to ~$3, destroying roughly two-thirds of investors' original capital. He argues these losses are completely avoidable with proper risk management.

Felix briefly references PLTR as an example of a stock that collapsed below the 150-day moving average, noting it is down 27% since the exit signal. He uses it to illustrate how following the exit rule would have avoided significant losses.

Tesla fails the three-part filter: profits per share missed expectations, car margins shrank below 17%, free cash flow went negative with about $1B cash burn in one quarter, and the stock trades at a forward P/E above 200. Felix views the current price as reflecting a future vision (robotaxis, humanoid robots) that hasn't materialized, while the core car business is weakening and Chinese competitors are outselling Tesla globally.

Google is one of the four hyperscalers whose AI capex underpins the entire AI revenue chain. Felix highlights that the market's stability hinges on these companies maintaining spending, and any earnings-call language suggesting cuts would trigger a cascade.

Amazon is one of the four hyperscalers whose AI spending loop sustains chip-maker revenues and stock prices. Felix notes these companies can borrow against high valuations to keep spending, but the cycle breaks if confidence falters.

Meta is one of the four hyperscalers whose collective AI spending is the linchpin of the global market. Felix warns that just the fear of spending cuts—not even actual demand destruction—could trigger a forced-selling doom loop.

Its original digital wallet edge has been competed away by Apple Pay, Buy Now Pay Later, and ShopPay. Gross margins have slid to 46% and keep declining, showing its moat has eroded.

Cash flow margin is minus 45%, burning $500 million to $1 billion per quarter. Despite a nice product, it has been destroying money for 16 months and is a bet on survival.

Not earning enough to cover its own obligations, taking on more debt to fund ongoing losses. Despite the cloud/cybersecurity buzz, it cannot take a punch and survive a bad year.

SpaceX is down 38% from highs and 10% below its IPO price despite 18 of 19 analysts rating it a buy and forced NASDAQ 100 index buying. The company burns roughly $5 billion per quarter, is unprofitable, and analyst price targets like $800/share imply a $10 trillion valuation at 500x sales, which the creator calls absurd. Banks are incentivized to issue buy ratings to secure future deal fees from SpaceX's massive capital raising needs.

IBM suffered its worst single trading day in 115 years, down 25%, because corporate customers redirected their normal IBM software and mainframe budgets to fund AI spending instead. The creator uses IBM as evidence that the AI boom is cannibalizing established, profitable tech companies rather than lifting the entire sector.

Salesforce was dragged down alongside IBM as investors recognized that enterprise software budgets are being cannibalized to pay for AI infrastructure, threatening companies previously considered safe.

ServiceNow fell in sympathy with IBM as the market realized AI capex is being funded by redirecting budgets away from established software vendors, putting previously safe software names at risk.

Oracle is borrowing heavily to fund AI infrastructure, contributing to the massive debt accumulation that now represents one in five dollars lent in America.

As part of the Magnificent Seven, Apple makes up a significant portion of the stock market and will be dragged down in a broad sell-off when the AI bubble bursts.

SpaceX recently issued $25 billion in bonds that have already lost 10% of their value, indicating that the bond market does not believe the hype and is pricing in higher risk.

Used as a cautionary tale—a past pick that ran up tremendously then collapsed roughly 70% back near its starting point. The creator highlights it to demonstrate that even great picks destroy investors who don't know when to sell.

Mentioned alongside Rigetti as a quantum computing stock that crashed approximately 70%, causing most investors who bought near the top to lose nearly everything. Serves as an example of why buy-and-hold without a sell system is dangerous.

Cited as an example of a loser stock to illustrate that buy-and-hold till death is dead and that holding the wrong stock while smart money rotates leads to significant underperformance.

Listed as one of the biggest losers over the past six months, down 57%. Used as an example of how even major household-name stocks can suffer large losses in a bull market.

Down 49% over six months, cited as an example of a major loser. Felix uses it to illustrate the opportunity cost of holding losers instead of rotating into winners.

Down 46% over six months, listed among biggest losers to demonstrate that big-name stocks can decline sharply.

Down 46% over six months, cited as a major loser showing that even strong consumer brands can drop significantly.

Down 32% year-to-date, cited as an example of a stock that has underperformed and where capital could have been better deployed elsewhere.

Part of the semiconductor complex that is starting its correction, analogous to the silver parabolic crash. Expectations are at historical highs and the rate of growth in chip spending may be peaking.

Part of the semiconductor complex facing a correction as the AI chip trade maxes out and expectations are at ceiling levels.

Part of the semiconductor complex facing a correction as money rotates away from chip suppliers toward hyperscalers and beaten-down sectors.